Archive by Author

The Big Bang Theory: Inflating the Stock Market

Weekly Market Commentary 4.21.2014 The Big Bang Theory, the most watched television comedy, is about a group of physicists and their aspiring actress friend from across the hall. The show often refers to theoretical physicist Sheldon Cooper’s quest for a Nobel Prize in physics as he frequently derides the work of his experimental physicist roommate, […]

Leave a comment Continue Reading →

The Weakest Earnings Cycle in 55 Years

Weekly Market Commentary 4.14.2014 This has been the weakest earnings cycle in 55 years. Every earnings cycle over the past 55 years has generated about a 7% annualized earnings per share (EPS) growth rate, when measured from peak to peak or from trough to trough. The best multi-year earnings cycle measured from prior peak to […]

Leave a comment Continue Reading →

Kids & Money: Nurturing Your Child’s Financial Growth

The Independent Investor – April 2014 “Reading, writing, mathematics”– too bad that list doesn’t include personal finance. Most kids learn the basics of money and making change in elementary school, but probably won’t learn how to manage money unless they choose finance as a career path. That means it is up to all of us […]

Leave a comment Continue Reading →

Surprise: Cyclicals May Soon Come Back

Weekly Market Commentary 4.7.2014 So far this year, “defensive” stocks, those that are less sensitive to economic growth, such as utilities and health care stocks, have led the markets higher. However, we may soon be nearing a meaningful and durable shift in the market favoring the more economically sensitive sectors that we call “cyclicals,” which […]

Leave a comment Continue Reading →

Is the Party Over?

Weekly Market Commentary 3.31.2014 Consumers are the most confident they have been in over six years, according to last week’s widely watched consumer confidence report from the Conference Board. Investors have been feeling confident too. The high valuations of stocks in some industries have been the talk of the markets lately, leading some to fear […]

Leave a comment Continue Reading →

What Is Priced In?

Weekly Market Commentary 3.24.2014 The S&P 500 seems to have absorbed the prospect for rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) beginning as soon as the middle of next year reasonably well. While stocks slid on Friday, March 21, early in the day they hit a new all-time intraday high a day after Fed Chair […]

Leave a comment Continue Reading →

March Madness in the Markets

Weekly Market Commentary 3.17.2014 With the exception of last year’s steady rise, March has been maddening for investors. In three of the past four years the S&P 500 raced higher in March only to reverse all of those gains in a pullback of about 10% that began in late March or April. It later took […]

Leave a comment Continue Reading →

Europe’s Big Bet

Weekly Market Commentary 3.10.2014 Bond yields have fallen this year, but they began to rebound in the United States in the latest week as the glass-half-empty bond market realized the all-time high stock market may have it right. But this was not the case in most of Europe. The ongoing decline in European government bond […]

Leave a comment Continue Reading →

Stocks Go From Great to Good as the Bull Turns Five

Weekly Market Commentary 3.03.2014 The end of this week will make it five years since the second most powerful bull market in post-WWII history began [Figure 1]. After five years, only the bull market that began on August 12, 1982 was stronger. It is not over yet. In fact, the bull market may be getting […]

Leave a comment Continue Reading →

The Real Reason for the Rebound

Weekly Market Commentary 2.24.2014 The first market storm of 2014 (that we had named Angel) is over with the S&P 500 and broader Russell 3000 stock market indexes rebounding to all- time highs after reversing a 6% decline. The decline was sparked by turmoil in emerging markets (EM) and weak economic data here in the […]

Leave a comment Continue Reading →