Weekly Market Commentary 03.12.2012 The three-year anniversary of the bull market took place on Friday, March 9. In the three years since March 9, 2009, the S&P 500 index is up 103% (with a 116% total return including dividends). This has been the strongest bull market since WWII. So, after doubling in three years what [...]
Arab Spring 2
Weekly Market Commentary 03.05.2012 Hollywood has a thing for sequels. So do the markets. In recent weeks, we have pointed to the rise in the stock market and the euro early this year as mirroring those gains of early 2011. While stock market gains and currency moves can certainly grab headlines, they lack the drama [...]
The Great American Race
Weekly Market Commentary 02.27.2012 Today, forty-three of the top drivers in the world will compete in “The Great American Race,” NASCAR’s biggest, richest and most prestigious motorsports event. Another great American race will be evident at Monday’s showdown: Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum’s logo will cover the hood of the number 26 car. While the [...]
Following the Path
Weekly Market Commentary 02.21.2012 Just seven weeks into 2012 and the markets are off to a strong start. The stock market, measured by the S&P 500, has posted a high single-digit gain for the year, and the S&P 500 index is around 1,350. Sound familiar? It should. It is exactly what happened last year, as [...]
The Worst Earnings Season in Years Still Beats Expectations
Weekly Market Commentary 02.13.2012 Earnings have mattered a lot for the U.S. stock market. Over the past three years, earnings are up about 58% and the S&P 500 is up about 55%.* That one-to-one relationship is no coincidence. Stock market valuations, measured by the price-to-earnings ratio — or what investors are willing to pay per [...]
Budget Bombshell
Weekly Market Commentary 02.06.2012 In one week, President Obama is due to submit his 2013 budget, which covers the fiscal year beginning on October 1, 2012. The Congressional Budget Act of 1974 requires the President to submit a budget request to Congress on the first Monday in February, but the Administration has scheduled the release [...]
January May Seem “Super,” but Don’t Be Bowled Over
Weekly Market Commentary 01.30.2012 Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) hit a new three-and-ahalf-year intraday high [Chart 1]. Earnings, gross domestic product (GDP), and consumer spending are already back to new highs, so seeing the stock market return to pre-financial crisis levels seems reasonable. January’s gain sets a positive tone for the year. [...]
State of the Union Preview
Weekly Market Commentary 01.23.2012 President Obama’s State of the Union (SOTU), scheduled for Tuesday, January 24, is unlikely to be a big market mover. In fact, most SOTU speeches see less than a 1% move in the stock market on the following day and the average move is only 0.14% [Chart 1]. However, the themes [...]
European Upgrade
Weekly Market Commentary 01.17.2012 On Friday, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, one of the three major U.S. ratings agencies, downgraded France and Austria from AAA to AA+ and downgraded seven others (Malta, Slovakia and Slovenia by one notch and Italy, Spain, Portugal and Cyprus by two notches). The downgrades contributed to the second down day [...]
Stock’s Sweet Sixteen
Posted on March 19, 2012 by BuchananWealth in Market Commentary
Weekly Market Commentary 03.19.2012 It has been a sweet sixteen weeks for the S&P 500. The broad stock market index has had only three down weeks out of the past sixteen. There has not been a sixteen-week period with fewer weeks of losses in over 20 years — since the period ending September 1, 1989! [...]